The RCVS has published a forecast of the supply and demand for veterinary surgeons and nurses up to 2035, predicting that the supply of vets will match or nearly match demand in clinical practice and charities over the period, but there will remain a significant shortage in public health, industry and universities.

The model for the forecast was developed by the College with the Institute of Employment Studies using data from the RCVS Registers, the 2019 and 2024 Surveys of the Professions, Office for National Statistics data for projected economic growth and the PDSA’s Animal Wellbeing (PAW) Reports.

However, the model does not take account of the impact of the increasing costs of veterinary care on pet ownership trends, the full effect of which may not yet have been felt.

The main predictions of the model are:

  • In clinical practice supply is projected to increase from 91% of total demand in 2023 to nearly 99% in 2035. 
  • In government service, supply will drop from 79% of total demand in 2023 to 78% of total demand in 2035.
  • There will remain a significant shortage of vets in industry (approx 84% of demand) and universities / research (approx 90% of demand).
  • The number of vets in clinical practice is projected to grow by 56% over the period and comprise 83% of the workforce by 2035. 
  • Within clinical practice, the number of small animal vets is projected to increase by 62%, to 27,920 in 2035.
  • The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) vets is projected to increase by 42% between 2023 and 2035 (compared with the growth in headcount numbers of 52%), with the average FTE falling from 0.85 in 2023 to 0.79 in 2035. 
  • Amongst veterinary nurses, the model predicts a significant oversupply of 28% in private clinical practice by 2035.

Lizzie Lockett, RCVS Chief Executive Officer, said: “In 2021, there were clear concerns about there being a workforce crisis within the veterinary professions, and while that certainly seemed to be the case, and is likely to continue to be so in the short-term, according to this model the future picture for the professions looks much better in most areas of veterinary practice.

“However, government service/public health looks to be an area where there is still a significant shortfall in supply, which is concerning considering the importance of government vets in food safety, disease prevention and international trade and we are willing to continue to work with government to find ways to remedy this shortfall.

“We are aware that there may be some concerns about the implications of the model, particularly concerning the potential oversupply of veterinary nurses.

"While we stand by the robustness of the data, demography is not destiny, and with the planned enhancement of the veterinary nurse role, and the likelihood of suppressed demand due to prior shortages, it is likely that the number of veterinary nursing roles will expand to encompass the number of veterinary nurses available to work in it.

“Finally, we are aware that there are also some limitations to the model in its current form, for example, in terms of regional data.

"This is a work in progress, and we will continue to update and improve the model as and when new data allows.”

The workforce modelling report is available to download from www.rcvs.org.uk/publications

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